Expert Prediction Markets for Climate Risk

Abstract

Many planning and investment decisions require an understanding of how future climate change will manifest itself. While there are many relevant sources of information and expertise, decision makers face significant difficulties in accessing, interpreting, and appraising it. Moreover, there are several problems in the institutional arrangements of current climate risk information provision. This presentation proposes expert prediction markets as a potential solution to these problems, and discusses the CRUCIAL initiative between the Universities of Lancaster and Exeter to establish such markets.