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How Do Atlantic Hurricanes Get Named?
For ease of communication with the public, each tropical storm is alotted a distinctive, instantly recognisable name. The storm retains this name even when it develops into a fully fledged hurricane.
Kim Kaivanto
Feb 8, 2024
2 min read
2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction Market Bulletin
Groundhog Day: little change from last bulletin.
Kim Kaivanto
,
Mark Roulston
Feb 2, 2024
1 min read
PDF
This is the race to achieve reliable long-term weather predictions
CRUCIAL in the news.
Kim Kaivanto
Jan 22, 2024
2 min read
2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction Market Bulletin
CRUCIAL’s hurricane prediction market is forecasting a higher-than-average number of hurricanes this year.
Kim Kaivanto
,
Mark Roulston
Jan 15, 2024
1 min read
PDF
2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction Market Bulletin
Hurricane prediction market suggests an elevated likelihood of an active season.
Kim Kaivanto
,
Mark Roulston
Jan 2, 2024
1 min read
PDF
Comment on: New ways to pay for research could boost scientific progress
There is an alternative to the funding models for scientific research that you discussed: prediction markets.
Mark Roulston
Last updated on Dec 15, 2023
1 min read
Tutorial for CAHM24
The CAHM24 prediction market is intended to produce a forecast of how many hurricanes will occur during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season that represents the collective wisdom and expertise of all those taking part.
Mark Roulston
Nov 7, 2023
4 min read
Inaugural expert climate prediction market for Atlantic hurricanes
The CRUCIAL at Lancaster University is opening a prediction market to forecast the number of Atlantic hurricanes in the 2024 hurricane season.
Lancaster University Press Team
Sep 18, 2023
2 min read
Expressions of Interest Invited
CRUCIAL is seeking research teams to participate in prediction markets for climate-related risks. Researchers from physical and social sciences with diverse expertise relevant to predicting physical climate risks and forecasting future greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations should register their interest.
Kim Kaivanto
Aug 31, 2023
1 min read
Fixing Climate Forecasting's Lemon Problem
The number of private sector suppliers of climate forecasts is growing but knowing whether a provider is competent is hard. Prediction markets for climate-related risks could help.
Mark Roulston
May 15, 2023
4 min read
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