Kim Kaivanto

CRUCIAL in the news.

CRUCIAL’s hurricane prediction market is forecasting a higher-than-average number of hurricanes this year.

Hurricane prediction market suggests an elevated likelihood of an active season.

CRUCIAL is seeking research teams to participate in prediction markets for climate-related risks. Researchers from physical and social sciences with diverse expertise relevant to predicting physical climate risks and forecasting future greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations should register their interest.

Dr Kim Kaivanto and Dr Mark Roulston introduce CRUCIAL at the Pentland Centre.

We demonstrate the viability of highly granular, two-dimensional (joint) outcome spaces with markets for monthly UK rainfall and temperature.

Forward-looking information about climate risks is critical for decision makers, but the provision and accuracy of such information is …

A proposal for generating forward-looking climate-risk information with expert prediction markets.

A workshop about an initiative to address emerging problems with the provision of climate risk information. 8 Feb 2022, Woburn House, London